The Nashville Predators have been forced into a slight experimentation mode since the trade deadline, with new faces entering the lineup due to moves being made. Ryan O’Reilly’s eye injury kept him out for last Thursday’s game and forced the team to adjust even more, which has influenced the forward line combinations in the games since.
It has not been a terrible development by any means, as it has allowed some of the young guys to get quality opportunities, none more than the one Matthew Wood has gotten at center. What it has also played a role in is the separation of O’Reilly and Luke Evangelista in the lineup, and we cannot deny that both players and the team are feeling its ill effects.
Just as far as base statistics are concerned, Evangelista has only an empty net goal since the separation, while O’Reilly only has two secondary assists. The eye test confirms that both have been less noticeable during this stretch, and most importantly, some deeper metrics prove just how much weaker the whole team is when they are on different lines.
Nashville Predators are clearly a better team with O’Reilly and Evangelista together
Naturalstattrick.com has a section called the line tool as part of its players section, which allows you to see the performance of a team with and without certain players on the ice. In this case, we will focus on four metrics to help us evaluate the Predators’ team performance with and without O’Reilly and Evangelista:
Goals for percentage (GF%)
Expected goals for percentage (xGF%)
Corsi for percentage (CF%)
Fenwick for percentage (FF%)
The former two are fairly self explanatory, but the latter two are not as well known. In layman’s terms, CF% is a measure of a team’s shot attempts for and against at even strength, while FF% measures a team’s unblocked shot attempts for and against at even strength.
Even simpler, both metrics measure how much offense and danger a team is generating compared to what they are surrendering, and anything over 50% for either is considered good. Hockey-reference.com has a page that contains more granular information regarding how both stats are quantified, if you would like to learn more about them.
In any event, all four metrics show that the Predators have been not only a strong team in 2025-26 with both O’Reilly and Evangelista on the ice, they have been truly dominant in some cases. The numbers down below represent how the team has fared throughout the entire season with both guys playing together.
CF% 59.12%
FF% 56.93%
GF% 64%
xGF% 61.94%
There have been four games since March 5, all four of which have seen O’Reilly and Evangelista playing on different lines, and the drop-off in team performance since then has been astounding.
Whether O’Reilly has been without Evangelista or the other way around, or if neither guy has been on the ice, the Predators have been dramatically less effective, and honestly downright bad a lot of the time.
Metrics with just O’Reilly on the ice:
CF% 41.25%
FF% 40.32%
GF% 50%
xGF% 29.27%
Metrics with just Evangelista on the ice:
CF% 46.67%
FF% 40.23%
GF% 40%
xGF% 33.52%
Metrics with neither on the ice:
CF% 43.48%
FF% 39.09%
GF% 66.67%
xGF% 46.08%
Just looking at the recent stats, you might notice that GF% with neither on the ice is strong, and also bring up that the team has scored three plus goals in three of the four games. However, xGF% in that same situation is significantly lower and a stronger indicator of actual offense generated, so the Predators have been way overachieving in terms of purely finishing chances.
Having watched the last few games and seeing not only how they have scored, but how often they have scored relative to chances generated, that disparity between GF% and xGF% is not surprising.
You also might take the recent stats with a grain of salt knowing the small sample size, but they are certainly not a fluke. When you evaluate the team without one of more of O’Reilly and Evangelista on the ice throughout the whole season, almost all of the metrics are below 50%.
The overall team numbers with Evangelista on the ice have actually been quite strong, which speaks to his breakout as an impact player this season, as well as the playmaking abilities we know he has. That being said, the team is still in fact weaker when both of them are not on a line together, and the last four games have put that in the spotlight.
Reuniting O’Reilly and Evangelista is important for the present and future
Even with the Predators being within realistic striking distance of a playoff spot, nothing is more important than building for the future and player development, especially for the young guys. Putting O’Reilly and Evangelista back on the same line addresses that since Evangelista is, himself, one of the young guys, and one of the more crucial ones at that.
Evangelista has blossomed beautifully in his third full NHL season, and has easily gone farther than other highly touted prospects who have played for the Predators in the past few years. The team desperately needs him to continue on that trajectory if they want to eventually move past the state they are in and emerge into a truly feared team.
The best way to accomplish all of that is to put Evangelista in the best possible position to succeed, and it is proven that putting him on a line with O’Reilly is the way he can succeed the most.
It also helps that it would aid their playoff push for this immediate season, so given that it is a best of both worlds situation as far as balancing the present and future, it should be a no-brainer for Andrew Brunette to return to what has been working.