The Nashville Predators breakout star winger is up for a new contract. How much is he worth? We look at similar wingers to find the correct dollar amount.
After locking in Ryan Johansen to a big multi year deal, Daivd Poile will likely move his attention to Viktor Arvidsson.
Arvidsson enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2016/17 that was not expected by most. Finishing the season before with an OT goal against the Sharks in Game 6 of Round 2, Arvidsson carried his dynamic speed and play making forward. It translated into goal after goal. Highlight after highlight.
Arvidsson’s History
He was not thought of as a can’t miss prospect. Drafting him in the 4th round out of the Swedish Elite League, most experts thought Arvidsson would be too small to translate. In his first season with Milwaukee he led the team in points with 55. The potential was radiating.
Looking at his first two years worth of numbers we see a dramatic rise. In the 2015-16 campaign, he collected 18 points in more of a 4th line role. This season he broke out to the tune of 31 goals and 61 points.
This put him second behind only Connor McDavid for biggest jump in point total from last year. His CF% of 55.6 was outstanding and he finishes at 18th in the league in that category. His 11.97 CF% RELTM was even better, good for 7th in the league right above Sidney Crosby. This means Arvidsson is controlling the puck and helping his teammates at an elite level.
But for Poile the issue remains the sample size. How do you calculate the price of Arvidsson based off one incredible season?
Lets take a look at some similar players to Arvidsson to uncover the number.
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Brad Marchand
As far as playing style goes, maybe no one compares better to Arvidsson than Brad Marchand. They are the same stature 5’9″ 180 lbs. Both are insanely gifted at possessing the puck and scoring off the rush. They are able to forecheck with great success and constantly agitate the opponent.
Mrachand’s 24-year-old season saw him finish with 27 goals and 55 points which is close to Viktor’s numbers. Marchand followed that season with another good performance during the shortened lockout, and signed a deal for $4.5 million that off-season.
Marchand is exactly the type of player Poile should envision when thinking about Arvidsson’s impact long-term for the Nashville Predators.
Kyle Palmieri
Kyle Palmeiri is another smaller stature winger with speed and offensive capabilities. The New Jersey Devil product is a force on the wing and Arvidsson could be following a similar path as far as production goes.
Palmieri is a perfect case to look at for a drastic jump in point totals. 3 seasons prior to his breakout in 2015/16, Pallmieri scored 10, 14, 14 goals each season. In the 2015/16 campaign after a trade from Anaheim to New Jersey, he broke out for 30 goals and 57 points. Palmieri was rewarded with a 5 year deal at 4.675$ million.
Stats wise no one compares better to Arvidsson in terms of jump in production than Palmieri.
Jaden Schwartz
Jaden Schwartz is another highly skilled, undersized winger. He can make plays at high speeds, and is constant on the forecheck. While he might be a bit more playmaker than scorer, he falls right around Arvidsson’s point range.
Jaden enjoyed his rise during the 2012/13 and 2013/14 campaigns. He scored 25 and 28 goals in those seasons. Like Arvidsson, Schwartz had moved up the lineup, which led to the production rising. St Louis signed him for 5 years at $5.35 million.
Schwartz plays the game at the speed of Arvidsson, and possesses the puck in a similar manner. Poile could envision his dollar figures when trying to project Arvidsson’s contract.
Conclusion
So what does David Poile do? Does he bank on Arvidsson maintaing this production, or improving on it and sign him long-term? Or does Poile expect his production to drop a bit?
Another interesting side to this is Arvidsson. If he feels he has another gear, he might want to sign a shorter term deal in hopes of a bigger payday in the future.
His 2016/17 campaign was spectacular, and he was one of the best possession players in the league. He has a case for getting paid top dollars now.
Next: Wrapping up the Entry Draft
But in the end, I think for both sides a shorter deal makes sense. Somewhere in the three to four-year range at $4.5-5.5 million.
Nashville Predators fans can rejoice knowing they can cheer for a fan favorite a few more seasons.
Prediction: 4 years $5 million Cap Hit per year