Moves were made. Decisions questioned. Yet, after the dust settles from the roster moves, are the Nashville Predators better now than in 2016?
No news is good news, or at least so they say. And there is nothing coming from the Nashville Predators camp currently. The ferocity of moves on July 1 is given way to silence. With the dust settling and new names being added to the roster, where does the team stand?
The question we all want answered is simple: are the Predators better now than they were last year?
My answer is not so simple. I don’t know. In order for us to come close to an answer we must evaluate what the team gained and lost this offseason. Then, and only then, can we speculate on the improvements of the team.
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Them Changes
It is easy to see the losses on the team. The players that are not on the roster now played major roles on the Stanley Cup run last years. We know what they can do, we witnessed it. Still, knowledge comes from study and research. The numbers must be evaluated.
- James Neal, RW: 23 goals, 18 assists, -10, 52.9 Corsi
- Colin Wilson, LW: 12 goals, 23 assists, +7, 53.1 Corsi
- Mike Fisher, C: 18 goals, 24 assists, +1, 50.4 Corsi
- P. A. Parenteau, LW: 13 goals, 15 assists, -18, 50.5 Corsi
While Fisher’s decision on returning is still in question, and Parenteau is not signed with another team gut reaction is they are not returning. For the sake of argument, we will go with this list.
Fisher’s spot on the roster will be the most difficult to fill. Not for his scoring but his leadership. Which jersey on the current roster will don the captain’s “C” after earning the role in camp? Who steps up as the leader of the Nashville Predator’s locker room? A successful team needs a great leader, and it cannot just be anyone. Fisher was the right player for that role last year.
This list causes another issue for next season, as the entire second line is gone. The line of Neal, Fisher, and Wilson was used 24% of the times during the 2016-17 season, and accounted for 36% of all points. The starting line of Pontus Aberg, Colton Sissons, and Filip Forsberg was used 27% of the time, and While there are other players, replacing an entire line means rebuilding chemistry.
New replaces old
Everything changes, and changes are always occurring. While there is loss, there is new. But is that new good enough for the Nashville Predators to take the next step? For our purposes, let us say that Pontus Aberg, Viktor Arvidsson, and Ryan Johansen return.
- Nick Bonino, C: 18 goals, 19 assists, -5, 46.4 Corsi
- Scott Hartnell, LW: 13 goals, 24 assists, +14, 52.9 Corsi
- Alexei Emelin, D: 2 goals, 8 assist, +1, 50.0 Corsi
These players are quality players, but are they enough to get the Predators further? Is this a team that can win 50+ games, win the division, and make about run at the Cup? The construction of the lines will help answer that. Here is one possibility.
Starting Line: Forsberg – Johansen- Arvidsson
Line 2: Craig Smith – Bonino – Aberg
Line 3: Austin Watson – Calle Jarnkrok – Hartnell
Defensive Pairings: Mattias Ekholm/P.K. Subban; Ryan Ellis/Roman Josi; Emelin/Yannick Weber
There is no doubt, at least in my mind, that the “JoFA” line is what the Predators need to lead this team. Those players accumulated 200 total points in 2016-17. It is as potent as a starting line as you can get in the NHL.
Shifts are necessary in order to fill out the rest of the lines. Smith’s ability to score 40+ points can ease the point need left by Neal’s departure. Bonino provides a veteran voice in the line, and Stanley Cup experience. He could provide insight, learned by watching his former Pittsburgh Penguin teammates, to the young Aberg. The third line is a place for Jarnkrok to learn to lead, and Hartnell has the resume to be a solid threat.
Defensively, the team is in solid shape. There is little need to reinvent the wheel; however, putting a scoring threat in Ellis on the third line may be beneficial. That would move Emelin to the second line, providing a physical presence on defense behind a younger offensive core.
The Answer
Are the Nashville Predators better now than last year? To me, I lean toward no. The JoFA line is young but very good. The defense is stable and that experience will certainly help the team. The issue to me is the depth offensively.
Aberg is young, but promising. As is Jarnkrok. Both Bonino and Hartnell bring experience, but that may not be enough. What player will take over the world, stepping up like Arvidsson did last season? If Fisher retires, who takes the reigns. There are too many questions to answer, and games to play.
Next: Matt Duchene is Not the Answer for the Predators
All of Smashville is watching what General Manager David Poile does next.