Nashville Predators: Is Kevin Fiala The Next Breakout Star?

Kevin Fiala has posted great stats in every league he’s played in, and he looks poised to do so in the NHL. Is he the Nashville Predators next star?

The Nashville Predators seemingly discovered a gem when they drafted Kevin Fiala 3 years ago. But is that gem ready to make his mark on the already impressive Predators?

Kevin Fiala has dominated at the AHL level, as well as shown flashes of brilliance during some stints in the NHL. At the ripe age of 21, he’ll look to turn those stints into a full-time NHL job for the Nashville Predators. He possesses the skills, his speed is blazing, his hands are silky, and he’s got a good IQ.

Fiala’s playoff performance was dazzling, he used his speed to make the Blues look like pylons. Unfortunately his post-season came to an end when he fractured his femur in a freak accident in the 2nd round. But that’s last season. Let’s look forward to my breakout candidate of the year.

Where will Kevin Fiala fit into the Nashville Predators line-up?

I’m a huge fan of the JoFA line and I think the Predators should keep them together. Plain and simple, that line is a dominating force and Fiala allows them to stay together. The good news for Fiala is that there is a James Neal sized hole on the 2nd line that needs filling. I think having a 2nd line of Fiala, Calle Jarnkrok, and Pontus Aberg would be a great way to develop the younger players. Aberg had a great showing in the playoffs and looks ready to be a full-time NHLer as well. Even if Jarnkrok or Aberg moves down to the 3rd pairing, Fiala should stay on that 2nd line.

Fiala has the potential, now all he needs is the ice time and experience. He isn’t going to get that playing on the 3rd or 4th line like he has been. Also some 2nd line power play time would do wonders for his stats, especially because he barely received any power play time this last year. Top 6 minutes is exactly what Fiala needs to grow into the scorer that Nashville so desperately craves.

Kevin Fiala may have decent stats so far, but where is there room for growth?

Fiala played under 4th line minutes last season and will certainly get a bump this year. Not only in multiple 5v5 situations, but also in power play situations as well. I don’t expect Fiala to play on the penalty kill at all, but he could get a look if injuries occur.

Fiala posted great possession stats through his NHL stint. He posted a 54.6 Fenwick score, good for a 5.4 Fenwick relative score. Now lets remember that he mostly played against 3rd and 4th line opposition, opponents he was clearly better than. He also received extremely favorable zone starts as he started in the offensive zone 58.7% of the time. I expect his Fenwick score to drop a bit as Fiala plays tougher minutes against tougher competition. The zone starts will most likely stay similar although drop a little, he’ll still get favorable starts until he grows into his defensive game.

Also, not for nothing. His PDO was little off this season. His teams on ice shooting percentage was 5.5%, a whopping 4% lower than the average in the NHL! Expect this to rise to around 9% and Fiala’s points to rise with it. The other part of his off PDO was his on-ice goalie save percentage. Nashville Predators Goalies put up an incredible 93.9 save percentage, 2% above the average 91.3%. Expect this to come back down to earth, but not too terribly.

So what can we expect out of Kevin Fiala this season?

As far as plain stats go, I think 25 goals and 40 points is perfectly reasonable

(Photo by John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images)

to expect. All Fiala does is score goals, plain and simple. He scores at a 1st line rate even though he plays 4th line minutes, I think the rate will stay the same even as the minutes increase. I don’t expect much of Fiala as far assists go. Passing has never been Fiala’s strong suit and to force him into a play makers role would be a mistake. I think his assist totals will rise as he plays with more skilled linemates. But the rate he assists most likely won’t grow too much.

Fiala is a shot generating machine at 5v5, although he averages 2 shots per game, he created a lot of chances for his linemates with his speed. This allowed his linemates to shoot more and create their own offense. I expect that his shot generation might dip a little in the beginning of the season, but then gradually rise.

Fiala’s shot suppression metrics were the most suprising stat in my mind.. Fiala suppresses shots at a 1st line level, although I think I know why. It’s the same reason his possession stats were so high, his level of competition. I’ve watched Fiala quite a bit and he’s not exactly strong in his own end. He played against 4th line competition and he started in the offensive zone almost 60% of the time. In reality, his line very rarely left the offensive zone at all. I suspect his shot suppression stats to fall wayyyyyy down this year.

Let’s be honest here, what is reasonable to expect from a 21-year-old who will start on the 2nd line?

What do the Nashville Predators need him to be? In my opinion, the Predators need him to light the lamp and not much else. Jarnkrok and Bonino are both defensively responsible which will allow Fiala to focus on offense. I expect over 20 goals and 40 points from the young speedster.

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If Kevin Fiala can get over 30 points, I still think it’s a win for the Predators.