The holes on the Nashville Predators’ second line are massive. Could moving a star from the first line be the answer to the issue?
Raise your hand if you have read more than five articles about the Nashville Predators’ second line in the last week? Yeah, me too. I wrote a few myself. But, that is THE need for the Predators as the 2017-18 season approaches. It is what will make or break the season.
What if I told you that the best answer for this line is moving a player from the first line? You would probably laugh at me, roast me on Twitter, and ignore anything I write. It is what most people do when there is an opinion so out there that you choose not to give it a thought. Just like those people on social media that are saying storms are being generated by the federal government.
Just hear me out. With the talent that is on the team – along with their team-first attitude – moving a piece from one line to another may be the best way to address the second line concerns.
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The Background
There are several blogs worthy of reading when it comes to the Predators. One of my favorites is On The Forecheck. They are great at using advanced stats to support thought-provoking conversations. Another great source is Hockey Graphs.
Last month, I read a post by Kate (@statswithkate on Twitter), regarding possible line combinations for the coming season. The article included player types (playmaker, shooter, balanced, and dependent), and percentages on several key categories. I stumbled upon it again tonight. And it got me thinking, which is scary.
Her work was based on results of research by Ryan Stimson of Hockey Graphs. The research took information from five-on-five play during the 2015-16 and the 2016-17 seasons. Because of that, there are some small inconsistencies, but those are marginal for this conversation.
The numbers are amazing to view. Based on the stats provided, Craig Smith is the best all-around offensive player on the Predators’ roster. Who’d have thought, eh?
The roster includes one true playmaker, Ryan Johansen, who has the highest passing index (total shot assists) on the team (91.73%). He is followed by Roman Josi (91.44%), Smith (86.83%), Mattias Ekholm (82.57%), Ryan Ellis (80.43%), Alexei Emelin (75.23%), and Nick Bonino (74.73%). Notice the amount of defensive players on that list. And, the absence of P.K. Subban, but that may well be due to his sample size, as noted by Kate in her article.
As for balanced players, these include Bonino, Kevin Fiala, and Scott Hartnell. Shooters? Smith, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson. Keep all of that in mind as well.
Move Forsberg?
Putting the best players on one line is not ideal. It can actually hinder production across the team. It is about matching abilities. Call me crazy, but could moving Forsberg to the second line be the answer to the concerns? Hear me out.
The first line needs Johansen’s creative play. His ability to move, pass and score are crucial. And, according to Stimson’s work, putting two shooters with a playmaker is a great option. Placing players with a high passing index could provide more play in front of and around the net. More interaction between players could lead to more goals. With Arvidsson’s shot volume, adding Smith’s passing ability brings another interesting trait to the front line. Smith can be a 50-point producer, and according to the data, he and Forsberg produce at similar levels.
That means, Forsberg moves to the second line. This could work well. Really well.
Why? He adds shot making ability the line currently lacks. He is not a primary assist player, but can create in transition. Put him with Bonino (who played a large amount of minutes with Phil Kessel), and a new lethal combination is created. Place a dangerous Fiala and you have a deadly line. The amount of shots that can be generated by a Forsberg-Bonino-Fiala line gives the Predators two great lines. Not just one.
That is something teams like the Pittsburg Penguins and Washington Capitals enjoy.
Oh, and remember that Josi, Ekholm, and Emelin all have high pass indexes. Maybe the combination of these areas benefit the second line’s performance.
Next: Training camp will answer Predators’ major questions
Now, this is not likely to happen. But, it might be worth consideration.