Nashville Predators: Predators Centers vs The Best of the West

Fans of the Nashville Predators often worry about centers. Are they justified? How does Nashville compare to their competition?

Everybody knows that the Nashville Predators’ calling card is their defense & goaltending. It’s been that way throughout the 2010s, and the 2017-18 season appears to be no different. Even with Ryan Ellis out, Nashville shouldn’t have to worry about their defense too much. When you’ve got P.K. Subban & Roman Josi, worrying is downright silly. You can stack Nashville’s defensemen against any team’s group of defensemen in the National Hockey League and feel pretty good about the Predators’ chances.

One position Nashville fans have never felt particularly good about is center.

Is concern over the center position justified? Today I’ll look at the Nashville centers compared to the centers of other teams in the Western Conference considered to Stanley Cup contenders. The Anaheim Ducks & Edmonton Oilers appear as the cream of the Pacific Division. We know the Central is always a crapshoot so it’s a little tougher to pick two teams to highlight. I decided on the Minnesota Wild & Dallas Stars, but let’s face it, it could be the Chicago Blackhawks and the St. Louis Blues standing in the Predators’ way. You never really know.

I’ve used four main statistics to judge the centers by. Goals & Assists are fairly self-explanatory.

FF%-Fenwick percentage at Even Strength. Fenwick is a player’s shots + misses. The average if 50%, so over 50% is good. If a team has an above 50% Fenwick percentage, the team was controlling the puck more often than not with you on the ice.

CF% rel – Relative Fenwick For percentage at even strength. Corsi is a player’s shots + blocks + misses. Basically, it adds a defensive component to the player’s Fenwick number. The relative Corsi takes the player’s value on ice and subtracts the team’s off-ice Corsi. The higher the better.

Nashville Predators

Ryan Johansen: 14 goals, 47 assists, 55.9 FF%, 7.0 CF% rel
Nick Bonino: 18 goals, 19 assists, 47.9 FF%, -4.9 CF% rel
Calle Jarnkrok: 15 goals, 16 assists, 50.4 FF%, -0.5 CF% rel
Colton Sissons: 8 goals, 2 assists, 44.4 FF%, -8.1 CF% rel

There’s been some difference of opinion over who the fourth Predator center will be. I chose Sissons because he’s gotten the most playing time & was entrusted with first-line duty in the Stanley Cup Final. I figure that has to mean something. Also, he played 49 more games in 2016-17 than Frederick Gaudreau, so there are more stats to use for comparisons.

The stats don’t look pretty after Johansen. Johansen’s advanced statistics are among the best in the league, which they’ll have to repeat this season. Jarnkrok’s stats were fairly mediocre, Sissons’ weren’t great & Bonino’s not favored by any statistics. He passed the eye test when I watched him play, and I was happy when the Predators signed him. Statisticians don’t like him though. His stats are apparently more troubling considering he was on Pittsburgh’s third line and often went against inferior competition.

Anaheim Ducks

Ryan Getzlaf: 15 goals, 58 assists, 50.1 FF%, 1.0 CF% rel
Ryan Kesler: 22 goals, 36 assists, 51.9 FF%, 2.0 CF% rel
Rickard Rakell: 33 goals, 18 assists, 52.0 FF%, 3.3 CF% rel
Antoine Vermette: 9 goals, 19 assists, 48.8 FF%, -0.8 CF% rel

Anaheim has become consistent playoff opposition for Nashville. Though the Predators have defeated the Ducks in each postseason series they’ve met, it’s been a dogfight every time. That dogfight generally ramps up at the center position. Ryan Kesler spent the entire Western Conference Final with his stick up Ryan Johansen’s pads. The Nashville Predators need to win these battles in order to succeed. Johansen is superior to the Ducks’ centers, but Anaheim will win every other battle. Rakell is usually on a wing but will be playing center at the start of 2017-18 due to a Kesler injury. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him remain there once Kesler returns.

The Ducks haven’t made the most of this advantage yet.

Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid: 30 goals, 70 assists, 54.8 FF%, 5.6 CF% rel
Leon Draisaitl: 29 goals, 48 assists, 52.7 FF%, 2.9 CF% rel
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 18 goals, 25 assists, 50.6 FF%, -0.8 CF% rel
Mark Letestu: 16 goals, 19 assists, 46.0 FF%, -5.7 CF% rel

The Oilers scare me more than any other team in the Western Conference. They have Connor McDavid, which is enough of a problem. They also have a vast array of young talent that is all among the best at their position. You’d have to give the Oilers advantages on all four lines.

The good news: The Oilers have lost the last nine times they’ve played the Nashville Predators. That includes six games during the two seasons McDavid has led the Oilers. Once a team gets in another team’s head, it’s tough to change the momentum. The Predators know this well. How many of us cried in terror when Nashville drew the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round last season? Chicago had Nashville’s number, much like Nashville has had Edmonton’s number.

If that’s to change, it will be due to McDavid’s continued improvement, and the advantage Edmonton holds at center.

Minnesota Wild

Eric Staal: 28 goals, 37 assists, 52.2 FF%, 3.8 CF% rel
Mikko Koivu: 18 goals, 40 assists, 50.9 FF%, 0.8 CF% rel
Joel Eriksson Ek: 3 goals, 4 assists, 42.0 FF%, -12.0 CF% rel
Matt Cullen: 13 goals, 18 assists, 49.9 FF%, -2.7 CF% rel

I have a difficult time getting excited about Minnesota as a Cup threat. Bruce Boudreau, yo. Nevertheless, they’re a popular pick among hockey writers to threaten this year. They have talent all over the ice…but center’s also a position of weakness for them. Eric Staal is solid, but there isn’t much beyond him. Staal, Koivu & Cullen are grizzled vets while Eriksson Ek is a 21-year-old sitting under the learning tree. They’ll be pesky, but I really don’t see any type of advantage here for the Wild.

Side note: Am I the only one that has no memory of Matt Cullen with the Predators? While looking him up for this piece, I saw he was with Nashville in 2013-2014 & 2014-15 and was gobsmacked. I don’t remember this happening.

The Wild’s strength comes from other parts of the team, much like the Nashville Predators.

Dallas Stars

Tyler Seguin: 26 goals, 46 assists, 51.4 FF%, 2.8 CF% rel
Jason Spezza: 15 goals, 35 assists, 50.3 FF%, -0.1 CF% rel
Martin Hanzal: 20 goals, 19 assists, 49.1 FF%, 3.2 CF% rel
Radek Faksa: 12 goals, 21 assists, 52.2 FF%, 2.2 CF% rel

The Stars’ centers are pretty similar from an advanced statistical perspective. There isn’t much drop-off from Seguin to Spezza to Hanzal to Faska. Seguin is widely considered one of the best centers in the league. The advanced stats favor Johansen, but most seem to agree that Seguin is better. The rest of the prospective center matchups also favor Dallas.

Fortunately for Nashville, Dallas’ goaltending & defense is much worse.