Nashville Predators: Why the Predators will not win the Stanley Cup
Last year, the Nashville Predators made an amazing push to the Stanley Cup Final. And lost. That may happen again this year.
Posts like this are difficult. Readers will see the title and immediately expect the post to be fully negative. Or, the author is just an idiot and chooses a “sky is falling” view of the world. Trust me, I love the Nashville Predators. While I may be a moron in some things, I only wish to be honest in my post.
Making to the Stanley Cup Final is hard. Just look at last season. The Chicago Blackhawks were the top team in the Western Conference, and one of the NHL’s best for several years. A sweep in the first round was likely; however, it was the lowly Nashville Predators that brought the broom.
The Predators rode the wave to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Can the Nashville Predators make it to the Final two years in a row? Maybe. This is a completely different team at this point of the season. A lot of the changes are positive. Depth at the center position is fantastic, and players are capable of moving from line to line as needed. The defensive combinations are tops in the league. Certainly, the talent is there to make it to the Final.
That being said, making it to the final will be difficult. Very difficult. So, let’s discuss reasons why the Nashville Predators will not make it to the championship.
Flag on the play
Oh, wait. Wrong sport. However, the sentiment is still true. The Nashville Predators are called for more penalties than any other team in the NHL. So far, they accumulated 127 trips to the box this season. That equates to nearly 14 minutes in penalties per game.
Here are how the Stanley Cup Champions ranked in penalties since 2010:
2017 – Pittsburgh Penguins: 23rd
2016 – Penguins: 27th
2015 – Blackhawks: 29th
2014 – Los Angeles Kings: 17th
2013 – Blackhawks: 29th
2012 – Kings: 13th
2011 – Boston Bruins: 8th
2010 – Blackhawks: 24th
The average rank for these eight champions is 21.25. That is a long way from the most called team in the NHL. You give great teams a man advantage, and the odds are in their favor to convert.
And, in last season’s playoffs, five Predators ranked in the top 15 in penalty minutes.
Subban and Company
There is no doubt the Predators defensive combinations are among the best in the NHL. That is not just the opinion of us at Predlines, but throughout the league. But, the team relies too heavily on P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, and Mattias Ekholm.
The trio of defensemen account for 59 of the Predators’ 263 total points. That is 22.4% overall. Each ranks higher in points on the team than any of the touted center players. The only center that has more goals than any defensemen is Calle Jarnkrok.
Granted, Nick Bonino and Ryan Johansen have missed time due to injury. But the trend of relying on defensemen for scoring can impede the team’s chances of winning late in the season. The defense plays further in the offensive zone, leaving creases for opponents room to breakaway.
Can the forward lines contribute more? They look to be trending that way. Let’s hope it continues.
Old body wears out
Raise your hand if you are 35 years old or older? My hand is up. And, while I am not a finely tuned athletic specimen, I like to think that I still have game. (Spoiler: I don’t. Although I can knock down a three-pointer at a higher rate than my opponents.)
Pekka Rinne is 35. Coming into this season, talk centered around his age. Can he keep up his solid play? Should he be limited to 60 games of less?
So far, Rinne has been the wall we all hoped he could be, ranking in the top 10 in saves, save percentage and goals-allowed per game.
Yet, he is on pace to play 65 games. Can his body hold up to the speed and demands of the game? Things look promising to this point, but 65 games would be third most in his career.
This means Juuse Saros needs to step up. And, well, he hasn’t yet. Maybe it is the defense letting Saros down and causing Rinne to face so many shots.
Rinne can wear down. If he does, the Predators are in trouble.
Formula for defeat
How many times have we seen it this year already. The Nashville Predators run out to a lead, only to have their opponent come back to tie and/or win.
The game versus the Golden Knights is just the latest episode in this season long saga. The Predators oft find ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Vancouver did it, in Bridgestone. Blackhawks as well.
So far, the Predators are being outscored 39-29 by opponents in the third period. What does that mean? The Predators allow teams too many chances in late in the game to score. When it comes playoff time, those chances lead to losses.
At least the Predators are 3-3 in shootouts this year. Far better than they have been before.
Surprising Team
Last year, it was the Nashville Predators. The year before, it was the San Jose Sharks.
It never fails. A team no one expected to do well made a great run in the playoffs. The Predators making it to the Stanley Cup Final would shock no one. They are not the surprise team. So, who is?
Could it be the Winnipeg Jets? They are currently sitting fifth in the Western Conference, and performing better than most anticipated.
Or, the Calgary Flames? While they have ups and downs all season, the Flames boast wins over Nashville, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and Washington.
Maybe it is the biggest surprise of all: Vegas Golden Knights. Yes, they are really fourth in the conference. They dominate at home, and play with amazing energy. Can they win enough to earn home ice advantage? With three teams ahead of them and a long season left, I doubt it. But, they did win in Nashville last week.
No matter what, the path to repeat as Western Conference Champs is difficult. Winning the Stanley Cup? There is a reason only one team wins.