Nashville Predators: How the Western Conference will be won

Pacific Division

At the beginning of the season, fans and pundits saw the Pacific Division to be Edmonton’s to lose. Of course, that has not turned out the way they thought. Like the Spanish Inquisition, no one expected the Vegas Golden Knights to achieve success so quickly. As it stands now, Vegas has the Pacific Division in hand. With an eight-point lead, the Golden Knights seem poised to win the division in their first season.

Not so fast my friend. San Jose may have something to say about that. Last night the Sharks extinguished the Calgary Flames with a final score of 7-4.  Outside of two games against the Knights and one against the Nashville Predators, the Sharks’ schedule is favorable. Six games are on home ice and four are against teams out of the playoffs. However, their last five are brutal: at Nashville, at Vegas, Dallas, Colorado, Minnesota. Five contenders.

In order to overtake the Knights, the Sharks must win five more games than Vegas. That will be a tough challenge. Two of those wins – and not in overtime –  must be against Vegas. If not, any chance of winning the Pacific is over.

But, the Sharks will remain in the division’s second spot, though it is a three-point lead over Los Angeles and Anaheim. The Kings have 8 games against playoff contenders, including one at Anaheim. They also face Dallas, Winnipeg, Minnesota, and Colorado. Tough road to make a great run. Anaheim’s schedule is not much better, though they do have the Oilers, Canuck, and Coyotes left.

There is a chance Calgary makes it into the Wild Card, but it does not look great. Currently, they are 7 points out in the division and their schedule does not help. Ten games remain. Two are against the Coyotes, and two are against Vegas. Add in Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles, Columbus and Winnipeg and you see why I have little confidence in the Flames chances.

Locks: Vegas, San Jose

Last in: Los Angeles

First out: Anaheim

Central Division

For those that follow the sport extremely close, we know Hockey-reference.com is the site for all the stats we want to see. They are the sports statics encyclopedia, which is what we used before all this technology and a thing called Wikipedia. Hockey-reference.com did 1000 simulations of all games for the rest of the season. At its conclusion, the Nashville Predators won the division 97.6% of the time. It makes sense given their 10-point lead in the division.

Now, I do not wish to get ahead of myself and crown the Predators the Central champs. Anything can happen. There are 11 games left for Nashville, Winnipeg, Minnesota, and Colorado. Dallas has 10 games remaining. Let’s review the schedules.

(Note: team currently in playoff position in italics)

Nashville: @BUF, Toronto, @Minn, @Winn, Minn, San Jose, Buffalo, @Tampa, @Fla, @Wash, Columbus.

Winnipeg: Dallas, LA, Anaheim, NSH, Boston, @CHI, @TOR, @OTT, @MTL, Calgary, Chicago

Minnesota: @ARZ, LA, NSH, Boston, @NSH, Dallas, @Dallas, EDM, @Anaheim, @LA, @SJS

Dallas: @WINN, @WASH, Boston, VAN, PHL, @MINN, MINN, @SJS, @Anaheim, @LA

Colorado: DET, @CHI, LA, VGK, @VGK, PHL, CHI, @Anaheim, @LA, @SJS, STL

No team has an easy path. The Predators remaining schedule includes six road games and eight teams currently in playoff position. Winnipeg has an advantage of more home than road games, but their next five are against contenders. Colorado avoids playing teams ahead of them in the division, but have a tough home-and-home with Vegas.

All of that said, the top two spots seem set. Nashville leads Winnipeg by 10 points, while the Jets enjoy a seven-point cushion over Minnesota.

Division Locks: Nashville, Winnipeg

Next In: Minnesota

Wild Card

We have gone through the divisions and set six spots. Two remain with four teams in play. Of those teams, Anaheim has the more favorable schedule. After a four-game road trip, their next four are at home. That is when they face their toughest opponents as well. Their road trip is against teams out of the playoffs, while home games are versus teams fighting for their playoff hopes.

Colorado has two games against the Blackhawks remaining, as well as Detroit and St. Louis. Dallas may have the most demanding as six games are on the road, but Boston, Philadelphia, and Minnesota all visit. Furthermore, Dallas is 3-3-4 in their last 10 games. The losses include Ottawa and Montreal on the road and Ottawa at home. You want to play your best hockey at the end of the season and Dallas as not.

Wild Cards: Colorado, Anaheim

How it all shakes out.

The last question to answer is who wins the Western Conference’s regular season. Three teams have a chance, though overtaking the Nashville Predators will be difficult. Here is a mathematical breakdown.

Nashville has 104 points, Vegas hold 95, and Winnipeg with 94. All teams have 11 games left, meaning the best they can earn is 22 points.

The best Winnipeg can do is 116 points, winning every game. In turn, Nashville would need to go 5-6-0 for the Jets to win the Conference. Each loss by the Jets makes it easier for the Predators, obviously.

As for Vegas, the best they can do is 117 points. Therefore, the Predators could go 6-5-0 and the Golden Knights would earn home ice.

Neither of these scenarios is likely. First, the chance of a team going on an 11-game win streak when facing desperate teams is a difficult task. It is only complicated when the best team in the league needs to collapse. So, for all intents and purposes, the Nashville Predators will be the Western Conference regular-season champion.

Here is how the playoffs then shake out.

Nashville vs. Anaheim

Vegas vs. Colorado

Winnipeg vs. Minnesota

San Jose vs. Los Angeles

Next: Preds punch ticket to playoffs

It certainly will be an exciting end to the season. With all the teams in contention playing each other, the drama will be enticing.