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Nashville Predators: Pekka Rinne is front-runner for Vezina Trophy

By Corey Francis

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 7: Pekka Rinne #35 of the Nashville Predators takes the net against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period at the Air Canada Centre on February 7, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 7: Pekka Rinne #35 of the Nashville Predators takes the net against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period at the Air Canada Centre on February 7, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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A season after winning the Vezina Trophy, Nashville Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne is making a case to claim it yet again.

There has not been a repeat winner of the Vezina Trophy since Martin Brodeur completed the feat in 2007 and 2008. It has only happened five times. Brodeur did it twice (also 2003 and 2004), as did Dominik Hasek (1997-1999 and 1994-1995), and Patrick Roy (1988-89). It is a rare accomplishment; yet, the Nashville Predators’ goalie Pekka Rinne could be added to this let.

Scoring in the NHL is reaching levels not seen in 13 years. On average, teams are scoring 3.05 goals per game this season, the highest it has been since 2005-06 when the rate was 3.08. Most years, the average is approximately 2.74. Additionally, the average goals allowed per game is 2.85, also the highest since 2005-06. Pressure is on teams to have solid goalie play, and the Predators are one of a few teams to have an elite player at the position.

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When looking through the stats, there are four goalies who are worthy of being in the discussion at this point. John Gibson continues his excellent play, as is Frederik Andersen. Marc-Andre Fleury leads the NHL in wins (24) and shutouts (6). But, it is Rinne that leading the pack.

Vezina worthy Numbers

Sure, this sounds like a homer statement – and I am partial to Rinne – but the stats back-up my reasoning. Here are a few numbers covering all situations.

Andersen: 20-9-1, 74g, .923 sv%, 2.50 GAA, 14.04 GSAA
Fleury: 24-10-4, 93g, .912 sv%, 2.47 GAA, 3.34 GSAA
Gibson: 15-13-6, 88g, .923 sv%, 2.64 GAA, 15.82 GSAA
Rinne: 16-10-2, 65g, .921 sv%, 2.23 GAA, 10.08 GSAA

Certainly, you can make an argument for each player. Fleury’s numbers stand out to me, but only because his wins seem to outweigh the rest of the numbers. While he does have 6 shutouts, his save percentage goals saved above average are significantly lower than the others. The other three are rather balanced; however, of all goalies with 25 or more starts, Rinne rates first in GAA.

Most of the games are played during 5v5 situations. There are 26 goalies who have 1000 minutes of ice time during 5v5. Here are the stats for our final four courtesy of Corsica Hockey.

Anderson: .934 sv% (5), .791 HDSv% (17), 8.89 GSAA (5)
Fleury:  .915 sv% (18), .798 HDSv% (14), -5.31 GSAA (19)
Gibson: .935 sv% (4), .854 HDSv% (4), 17.37 GSAA (1)
Rinne: .937 sv% (3), .874 HDSv% (1), 10.20 GSAA (3)

Again, one of these things are not like the others. As a matter of fact, two players rank in the top five in each category. With each stat being so close, any significant difference matters.

That leaves us with Gibson and Rinne. This is where the argument gets tough. Both players have wins over Tampa Bay and Toronto, teams who are considered the best of the Eastern Conference. Gibson is 2-0-0 against the Lightning and Leafs, allowing four goals. Rinne has three wins against these two teams allowing 3 goals, including last night’s shutout over the Leafs. Rinne also holds a win over Washington, while Gibson was pulled after giving up three first period goals against the reigning Cup champions.

While Gibson is 1-1-0 against the Nashville Predators, the loss came against Rinne when the team was missing Viktor Arvidsson, P.K. Subban, and Kyle Turris. The win was a 2-1 victory that went to a four-round shootout.

“But wait,” you say. “What about Andrei Vasilevskiy or Connor Hellebuyck?” Good question, but they can’t be in the conversation yet. Vasilevskiy has the lowest HDSv% (.667) of all goalies with 1000 minutes at 5v5 and a GSAA 0f -6.04. Hellebuyck is just one spot better with a .757 HDSv% and -4.79 GSAA. Again, using Corsica Hockey.

dark. Next. Preds Mid-season Awards

Honestly, we are splitting hair between John Gibson and Pekka Rinne. You have to when they are so even. Both teams often rely on their goalies to win the game. Thankfully, Rinne does that just a bit better right now. He is our Vezina front-runner.

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