Nashville Predators’ top line arguably the best in the NHL

Which team has the best top line in the league? With several great ones, the Nashville Predators are showing why theirs is the best.

It is an argument stretching across the NHL. Which top line is the best one around? Usually, it is a fan trying to say his or her team is better than someone else’s. That is how sports conversations usually start anyway. Over recent days, talk on Twitter has centered around the top line topic. Several teams can throw their hat into the ring and argue their place, including the Nashville Predators.

Yes, those Nashville Predators. The team that struggled to win games in December, losing 10 straight on the road. Known more for their defense, the Predators top line is making its case for being the best in the NHL. There are plenty of stats to back it up.

But, in order to establish which line is superior, we have to state those in contention. The Colorado Avalanche are certainly in the conversation as Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon are both top five in points in the NHL. Johnny Gaudreau is one of the shining young stars in the game, leading Calgary’s top line into the mix. Winnipeg is firmly in the conversation as well, as is Toronto. That gives us five teams to discuss.

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When looking through the basic stats, one could question why the Predators’ top line is even in the conversation. Ryan Johansen is the only player in the top 50 in points, with 42 total. His 34 assists rank 17th overall. Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov leads the league with 75 points, followed by Rantanen (69), Gaudreau (69), MacKinnon (66), Blake Wheeler (60), and Mitch Marner (59). That is two from Colorado, and one each from Calgary, Winnipeg, and Toronto.

Want goals? We have those as a well. From the five teams in the conversation, Nashville has two players in the top 50: Filip Forsberg (18) and Viktor Arvidsson (17). However, the other five teams have players in the top 15. The story remains the same when you look at points per game. Only Arvidsson ranks in the top 50 in that area for the Nashville Predators.

A deeper look

Part of the concern for the Predators line in this argument is they have played 18 games together. That is 194:40 minutes at 5v5. However, when you look at their numbers as a line, it is rather telling how good they are together. At 5v5, their CorsiFor is 62.23%, FenwickFor of 60.19%, a goals-for rating of 60.71%, and an HDCF% of 68.48%. Those are rather good. These four areas compare shot attempted versus allowed and high-danger scoring chances gained versus allowed. It is a strong comparison of offensive and defensive capabilities.

Let’s check the numbers for the other lines. All stats are from NaturalStatTrick.com

Calgary Flames (Gaudreau/Monahan/Lindholm): 55.88 CF%, 54.34 FF%, 63.33 GF%, 54.05 HDCF%

Colorado Avalanche (Landeskog/MacKinnon/Rantanen): 53.99 CF%, 52.90 FF%, 65 GF%, 51.03 HDCF%

Toronto Maple Leafs (Hyman/Tavares/Marner): 51.62 CF%, 50.08 FF%, 63.64 GF%, 57.46 HDCF%

Winnipeg Jets (Scheifele/Ehlers/Wheeler): 53.78 CF%, 53.09 FF%, 68.97 GF%, 48.76 HDCF%

When looking through performance as a line, the Predators lead in three of the four areas. They shoot, limit opponents shots, and get to the high-danger areas more than their opponents.

Let’s throw one more line in the mix, just for fun. How about Tampa’s line of Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Tyler Johnson. Their numbers are 52.21 CF%, 52.48 FF%, 59.52 GF%, and 52.54 HDCF%. This line rates slightly better in CF and FF than Toronto in our comparison, but falls short in all other areas.

The argument is then the amount of time they have played. Arvidsson missed 21 games and Forsberg was out for 18. Looking at the individual rates of players with more than 300 minutes on the ice during 5v5 will tell us how they have performed overall. In terms of goals per 60 minutes, Arvidsson leads the NHL with 2.3. John Tavares is second with 1.93 goals/60. Johnny Gaudreau is 17th (1.39) and Forsberg is 24th (1.29). None of the players from Winnipeg or Colorado are in the top 25.

Another strong statistic is total points per 60. In that category, Arvidsson is third overall with 3.54 p/60. Tavares, Marner, and Gaudreau are all in the top 10. Rantanen and MacKinnon are 15th and 28th, respectively, while Johansen sits at 31st (2.59 p/60).

When looking at total assists per 60, Colorado’s Rantanen leads our conversation with 2.39. Marner is not far behind (2.24) and Ryan Johansen is 11th (1.97).

Want scoring chances? Avridsson is fourth in the league with 12.38 iSCF/60, followed by Tavares (5th, 11.55) and Forsberg (8th, 11.16).

So, looking through more advanced statistics, the Nashville Predators’ certainly have a case for being the best top-line in all the NHL. Individually, they may not be leading the league in points or goals, but their per 60 stats show what is possible if they didn’t miss time. Additionally, their numbers together on the ice show they gain offensive chances and play defense as well. That is a total line if you ask me.