Nashville Predators: Armchair GM Season is Upon Us
Cap Space Wanted
The Nashville Predators have always seemed to work wonders with the salary cap. They very rarely have made a bad deal. They had no choice. The Predators are a small market team that until recently, did not have the okay to spend up to the top of the cap. That all started to change when the Nashville Predators matched the Philadelphia Flyers offer sheet for Shea Weber in 2012, making him the second highest paid player in the league at that time.
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Since the infamous offer sheet debacle, the Predators have been willing to spend money. However, they have remained focused on making as many team-friendly deals as possible along the way to lock in its core players. That was eventually going to catch up to them. You can’t have every player under contract and expect to have cap space. Well, here we are. This summer is the first off-season I can remember the Nashville Predators have almost no room to make any serious free agent moves.
The Predators project to have roughly $6 million in cap space next season if the NHL salary cap bumps up to the expected $83 million. The following players are free agents this summer: Brian Boyle, Wayne Simmonds, Rocco Grimaldi, Colton Sissons, Cody McLeod, and Zac Rinaldo.
Who Should Be Resigned
Undoubtedly, the Predators won’t (and shouldn’t) have any interest in resigning Simmonds, McLeod, or Rinaldo. So, that leaves the Predators with $6 million to sign Boyle, Sissons, and Grimaldi. A lot of fans and analysts believe they should sign Boyle. He played the best out of any of their trade deadline acquisitions and gave the Predators the extra leadership it was longing for all season long.
According to Evolving Wild’s contract predictor tool, Boyle will command somewhere around $1.25 million on a 1 year deal. That feels a little low to me given everything Boyle has to offer for the Predators. Nonetheless, we will go with that number.
The first run of our contract projections for this offseason can be found here: https://t.co/9om1VmHVQu
— EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) April 25, 2018
The Predators are almost guaranteed to resign both Sissons and Grimaldi as well. Sissons has continued to improve his play, year over year, and is a vital part of the organization. Adam Vingan of the Athletic gave Sissons a B grade for his season this year. Vingan also gave Grimaldi an A for his play this season. Grimaldi and Sissons both put up career years this season and deserve new contracts.
Looking at the same contract predictor, Sissons is looking at a 3 year deal with at $2.9 million per. Grimaldi should garner about $850,000 for 2 years. I would venture to guess Poile works a little magic and can convince Sissons to take a 3 or 4 year deal worth $2.5 million per. Either way, to sign all three players will cost the Predators around $5 million. That would leave them with just $1 million in space to offer a few league-minimum contracts to fill out their system depth.
That is not enough space, however, to land any big time free agent forwards this team so desperately need. So, follow me fellow armchair GMs as it is now time to make trades to bolster the roster!
The Big One
The one everyone has talked about since season’s end. The trade that would answer the prayers of Nashville Predators fans everywhere. Let’s trade P.K. Subban. Quick note: I don’t think the Predators will trade Subban and I don’t think they should. Outside of the first half of this past season when he dealt with injuries, Subban has been every bit of the elite, Norris Trophy winning defender he was with Montreal the past two seasons in Nashville. He also was their best defenseman in the Playoffs and it wasn’t even close.
However, the Predators do have a need for more offense, and he is the most expensive piece on their roster. If the Predators want to make a play at some of the big name free agent forwards, they need to clear cap space. Unfortunately, that means Subban has to go.
For those fans who are calling for Ryan Ellis‘ head, IT IS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN. Next season will be the first year on Ellis’ new contract. A contract which David Poile was willing not to agree to unless it did not contain a No Trade Clause (NTC). Since that is the case, he is not going to trade Ellis in the first year of that new deal. If he does, no free agent would ever sign with the Predators again without having a NTC in their contract.
The Trade
Fair warning: this trade will disappoint you. But, bear with me. There is a higher purpose. There are two things that make trading Subban difficult. The obvious one is his cap hit of $9 million per year for the next 3 years. The second impediment is how he is perceived throughout the league. Far and wide, Subban is seen as a huge ego and a distraction in the locker room. Evaluators have proclaimed Subban as in decline or not Norris Trophy-caliber anymore. Those to factors will hurt his market value. Without further ado, I give you the Subban trade.
I am sorry to disappoint you. Before you say it, I know this doesn’t bring back a goal-scorer for the Predators. I know the value may not seem to add up. But, hear me out. As I mentioned before, Subban has a diminished market value since the trade to Nashville. The rumors that came out about why Montreal would trade a recent Norris Trophy winning, anchor of your defense, kind of player in his prime hurt his value. The fact that Predators fans have called to get rid of him ever since he got here, hurt his value. Also, his regression on the ice has hurt his value. Oh, and $9 million per year hurts his value too.
Why This Works for Both Sides
I will start with the Carolina. They are currently leading 3-0 in their series against the New York Islanders and have a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. So, why would they want Subban? They probably wouldn’t. But, they wouldn’t not want him either. Carolina has a strong young core on the blue line. They also are in the hunt for more offense.
By taking on Subban, they have a pleothora of highly skilled defensemen whom they can bargain with in the trade market. They could flip Subban or keep him and trade any of their other top four or five guys. They currently project to have $28.5 million in cap space before signing their free agents. That is more than any other team next season. They can afford to keep Subban and to add veteran presence along with skill to their already solid defense core.
The Predators get a younger, cost-controlled defenseman. More importantly, van Reimsdyk would be an upgrade over Dan Hamhuis, Yannick Weber, or Matt Irwin while also keeping a top-two pairing spot open for Dante Fabbro. Fabbro proved more than capable to take on a larger role next season and moving Subban will give him that opportunity.
The draft picks are key. Nashville traded its 2019 2nd round pick to the New Jersey Devils for Brian Boyle. Carolina pick will end up being no more than eight slots lower than the Predators pick would have been. So, the Predators get to recoup what they lost to gain Boyle. The 2020 conditional 3rd rounder is even better. If Subban Finishes with 45 points next season, it will become a 2nd round pick. If Subban wins the Norris Trophy, it becomes a 1st rounder.
The Predators could potentially get a steady top-six defenseman, a 1st round pick, and a 2nd round pick. They also save $6.7 million in cap space. That is huge for their goal in free agency.
The Other Big One
It was a season to forget for Kyle Turris. After dealing with some injuries, Turris never seemed to find his game again. At least, not what Predators fans grew accustomed to last season. He lost favor with the coaching staff which led to a lack of overall confidence. It never got better. Fans have called for the Predators to get rid of him before we are on the hook for his full 6 year $36 million contract extension.
Turris had arguably his worst season as a full-time NHLer. But, that was after one of his best seasons last year. Over the course of his career, he as been a good player. One bad season should not call for the boot out the door. However, the Predators need cap space and Turris has a huge contract. Additionally, his trade value is much higher now than if he turns in two bad seasons in a row. So, “let’s make a deal.”
Why It Works
I have not an inkling of an idea of what the Buffalo Sabres want to add to their team this summer. They have a few young stars on their team, including a number one Center. This deal can work for them, however, because it adds a solid, veteran player at a reasonable price. It also dumps the last year of the Vladimir Sobotka, who hasn’t done anything to earn his $3.5 million per year salary.
The Predators, here, are more interested in getting out from under Turris’ contract and gaining some okay draft picks. It gives the Predators a third 4th round pick in the upcoming draft. Also, the conditional pick in 2020 becomes a 2nd rounder if Turris scores 50 points in either season after the trade. Sobotka can play some grinder minutes in a bottom six role and then becomes a free agent after next season.
The net result of the Turris trade is $2.5 million saved this season and $6 million saved per year for four years after. Combine that with the money saved in the Subban deal and the Predators have $12 million to work with in Free Agency (assuming they don’t sign Boyle and resign Sissons and Grimaldi).
Choices Choices Choices
The Predators have $12 million in their pocket and their sites on improving their offense. There are plenty of options available. The obvious choice would be Artemi Panarin. True scorers of Panarin’s level don’t become available too often. He instantly improves the Predators offense. But, at what cost?
Using the same predictor model as before, Panarin should command an monster deal. He is the top free agent available and easily could garner and 8 year $11.25 million/year deal. All of that maneuvering by the Predators to make cap space, and it is gone. Just like that. As good as Panarin is, he is not enough for the Predators.
Instead, the Predators could add two, good-to-elite forwards, both of whom can play the Center position vacated by Turris. The Columbus Blue Jackets had the most successful trade deadline this year, acquiring Ryan Dzingel and Matt Duchene from the Ottawa Senators.
They decided to forego trading their two, prime rental options in Panarin and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. That was a huge risk due to their pending free agent statuses. The risk paid off because they are now two wins away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Make a Decision
The Nashville Predators should follow the Blue Jackets’ model. And by follow, I mean steal. The Predators should sign both Duchene and Dzingel. David Poile has coveted Duchene for the last three years or more. Duchene has acted like he wants to be in Nashville. Duchene is finally available for Poile to strike.
Dzingel is an up-and-coming forward that was one of the few bright spots on the league-worst Senators until being traded. He has a scorers touch and can play on the wing or down the middle. The two of them can add serious depth and offensive power to the Predators roster. Here’s how the money could work out.
Matt Duchene will obviously command more than Dzingel because of his pedigree and strength at a premium position. Poile conceivably could offer 6 years $7.5 million/yr to land Duchene. The contract predictor only has him at $6.9 million per, but after his playoff performance so far, I doubt he will go that cheap. Keep in mind, Nashville offers plenty more than most other teams because of their low taxes.
In order to land Dzingel, Poile could offer a quality bridge deal. Dzingel should be more than willing to take an offer of 3 years at $4 million/yr. Younger guys in the league are starting to take less money on their first go at unrestricted free agency in exchange for fewer years.
The idea behind taking less for less is they will hit free agency again while still in their prime. This allows the league that is trending up financially to increase salary caps and for other players to build the market. Dzingel had a good season this year and continues to develop since he has been in the league. If he takes a bridge deal and becomes a top-tier player in a few years, his value will increase substantially. Just in time for a new contract.
Synopsis
The Nashville Predators have plenty of decisions to make this offseason. Unfortunately, those decisions are limited unless the Predators clear some cap space. It is hard, but that is the nature of the game. When winning championships is expected, you have to make tough decisions.
Subban and Turris are the most obvious players to move. They both are paid handsomely and would open up a ton of cap space and flexibility for the Predators. The Predators can take that cap space and sign two, really good players in Duchene and Dzingel. They also will open up a spot for Fabbro to play top four minutes on defense.
The Nashville Predators will finally have their number two Center and another consistent scorer on the wing. The NHL is an offensive league. It doesn’t make sense to continue to drive your offense through the defensemen. Forwards score more. It is a fact. Make these deals happen and score more.
If you enjoyed this article and have often felt like you should be the GM for the Nashville Predators, head on over to CapFriendly.com. All of the contract and salary cap information I used in this piece is from Cap Friendly. They also have a fun little feature called Armchair GM. You are able to take whatever team you want and make any moves you desire. If you do make a team, publish it, then tweet @predlines the name of your team and we will be sure to check it out!