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Predators: Line Combination Issues Aren’t for the Reasons You Think

By Matt Klett

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 16: Colton Sissons #10 of the Nashville Predators plays against the Chicago Blackhawks at Bridgestone Arena on November 16, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 16: Colton Sissons #10 of the Nashville Predators plays against the Chicago Blackhawks at Bridgestone Arena on November 16, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /
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The Nashville Predators top-six line combinations have constantly been shuffled, and the lack of stability seems to be taking a toll.

The line combinations in the recent stretch of losses are not the same as the high-powered offensive team we saw at the start of the season. The solution seems obvious, so why are the Nashville Predators not going back to the line combinations that were working?

What’s the best line combination for success? That’s the million dollar question right now. The first two lines for the Predators have only scored eight of 18 goals through the first seven games in the month of November. Filip Forsberg has four of those eight goals.

What happened to the offense that scored 30 goals in their first seven games of October? Let’s start by breaking down the top two lines.

First Line Combinations

The first line combination of Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen and Calle Jarnkrok played 106 minutes together in 13 games. The most recent first line combination of Arvidsson, Johansen and Forsberg, or the JoFA, has logged just over 50 minutes in ten games.

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Figuring out how to best sort out the top two lines has been an ongoing debate among fans. It starts by deciding who is most effective to line up with Johansen or Arvidsson.

Second Line Combinations

The second line has used three main combinations. The first set isForsberg, Matt Duchene and Mikael Granlund, who have played nearly 89 minutes together in 11 games. The second-most common combination is Granlund, Duchene and Kyle Turris at nearly 46 minutes in seven games.

The most recent second line consists of Granlund,Duchene and Jarnkrok who have logged just over 22 minutes of ice time in six games. So we’ve seen plenty of shuffling to see what works and what doesn’t. Do we have any clearer answers than when the season opened up back in the first week of October?

Let’s Compare Line Combinations: *In order of TOI*

Statistics compiled from moneypuck.com and naturalstattrick.com

Line 1:

Arvidsson-Johansen-Jarnkrok:

  • Expected goals for (3.9), Expected goals against (4.2), xGF%= 48.1%

Arvidsson-Johansen-Forsberg:

  • Expected goals for (1.89), Expected goals against (2.95), xGF%= 39%.

Best first line combination, statistically: Arvidsson-Johansen-Jarnkrok

In the five-straight losses since the Nashville Predators beat the Detroit Red Wings on November 4th,the best first line combination of Arvidsson-Johansen-Jarnkrok has just 1:34 minutes of ice time together. The worst of the two main first line combinations, Arvidsson-Johansen-Forsberg, has 28:54 of TOI.

Line 2:

Forsberg-Duchene-Granlund:

  • Expected goals for (4.6), Expected goals against (2), xGF%= 69.7%

Granlund-Duchene-Turris:

  • Expected goals for (1.8), Expected goals against (1.9), xGF%= 48.6%

Granlund-Duchene-Jarnkrok:

  • Expected goals for (0.89), Expected goals against (0.67), xGF%= 57.05%

Best second line combination, statistically: Forsberg-Duchene-Granlund

In the five-straight losses since the Nashville Predators beat the Detroit Red Wings, Forsberg-Duchene-Granlund only have 4:01 of ice time together. They started off the year playing together before Forsberg’s injury when the Predator were beating quality opponents, getting stellar goaltending and piling up the goals.

The next-best second line combination of Granlund-Duchene-Jarnkrok has 15:45 of ice time together. The worst second line combination of Granlund-Duchene-Turris only has a mere 1:33 of ice time together.

It seems that Granlund was flourishing with Forsberg and Duchene so I don’t want to write him off until we see more of that line. However, the amount of under-production is scary and is a very worrisome factor in a contract year.

Where It Gets Tricky

Basically this leaves six main guys for the bottom two line combinations. These players are Craig Smith, Nick Bonino, Rocco Grimaldi, Kyle Turris, Austin Watson and Colton Sissons. That’s if you go by who is playing the best together from a statistical standpoint.

The third line combination of Grimaldi-Bonino-Smith has 88.8 minutes and a 69.7% expected goal percentage. They have nine goals for and only two against. That leaves Watson-Turris-Sissons for the fourth line combination, they have 26:57 minutes together, but an expected goal percentage of 33.33%. They have two goals for and four goals against.

What if you mix these two lines? The next best third line combination is Watson-Bonino-Sissons with 55 minutes together and an expected goal percentage of 57.1%. They have 4 goals for and 2 against.

This leaves Grimaldi-Turris-Smith for the fourth line combination, but they only have 4:27 of ice time together, but why? Mixing and matching is not particularly working on the top lines, but mixing up the bottom six just a little bit could go a long way. I would like to see how this third and fourth line combination would pan out.

Best Total Line Combinations

Line 1

  • Arvidsson-Johansen-Jarnkrok: 5v5, TOI 106 min, GF 6, GA 3

Line 2

  • Forsberg-Duchene-Granlund: 5v5, TOI 88.8 min, GF 8, GA 5

Line 3

  • Watson-Bonino-Sissons: 5v5, TOI 55 min, GF 4, GA 2

Line 4

  • Grimaldi-Turris-Smith: 5v5, TOI 4:27 min, GF 0, GA 1

Another interesting opinion on the Nashville Predators bottom six can be read here

Bottom Six Players Statistically, Plus Mikael Granlund

  • Nick Bonino: Pts 14, G 9, A 5
  • Colton Sissons: Pts 11, G 5, A 6
  • Kyle Turris: Pts 9, G 4, A 5
  • Rocco Grimaldi: Pts 9, G 1, A 8
  • Austin  Watson: Pts 6, G 3, A 3
  • Mikael Granlund: Pts 6, G 3, A 3
  • Craig Smith: Pts 6, G 2, A 4

Granlund Underproducing

It seems that Granlund was flourishing with Forsberg and Duchene so I don’t want to write him off until we see more of that line. However, the amount of under-production is scary and is a very worrisome factor in a contract year.

Analysis

The shuffling is going on in the wrong place. The top two lines have shown who should be where, and the bottom six is where the Predators could improve and perhaps do some shuffling.

I think the next best step to take is to give Grimaldi, Turris and Smith a go together. Bonino centering Smith and Grimaldi has looked good, but the wealth needs to be spread out a bit more in order to clean up the whole lineup.

If Grimaldi, Turris and Smith doesn’t work? If this line combination doesn’t work then Grimaldi, Bonino and Smith could easily be reunited. This is where things get tricky. What would happen to the fourth line. It would seem that someone would need to go, and maybe someone in Milwaukee could come in and be a perfect fit.

Bottom line is the Predators should go back to what was working when the season opened up. Get Forsberg and Duchene back together and stick Jarnkrok back on the top line. Preferably there should be an extended amount of games to let the chemistry be built back up. It’s definitely a hot topic and tricky situation to sort out as the Predators look to find the win column again.

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