There was so much buzz surrounding Matt Duchene to the Nashville Predators, but did he truly live up to that hype in 2019-20?
We’re jumping right into our 2019-20 player grades with the uncertainty and unlikelihood that the Nashville Predators season resumes.
Maybe they start off in the playoffs, but for now we’re assuming that the regular season will not be played out in its entirety, and now we can begin to assess each player’s season.
When it comes to Matt Duchene, he came on board with the Nashville Predators with a considerable amount of pressure. It was a major offseason signing, and with that naturally brought hefty expectations.
Did he live up to the hype?
This is somewhat of an unfair question because Duchene did bring a lot of positives to the team. He generated a lot of scoring chances despite being on a roster that was constantly changing, and in flux after a midseason coaching change.
But, and this is a big “but”, he didn’t really scratch the surface of what he’s capable of or what he should bring when you look at the contract he got over the offseason to come to the Predators.
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Duchene played in 66 of the team’s 69 games played, amassing 42 points. Not the production level I can honestly say I was expecting from him going into the season.
You also have to take into account that his point production is heavily weighted towards the first five games when he put up nine points.
Some people heavily critical of Duchene in the past warned that we would see the scheduled disappearing act, and they were kind of right on that prediction.
If you look over Duchene’s career numbers, he’s never surpassed more than 70 points. So even though he brought a lot of buzz and hype after being signed over the offseason, we shouldn’t have expected him to suddenly morph into an elite scorer at age 29.
When you factor in Duchene’s points per game production, if the season would’ve been finished out, then he would’ve finished right around 50 points. That would put him down 20 points from his career high which he achieved the season before.
So yes, this is a pretty steep drop-off from one season to the next, and one that gives you some cause for concern. Not a the production you want to see from a player of his talent level, but not completely horrendous either when you consider all of the other factors.
It’s not all terrible for Duchene, however. His possession metrics are very solid, with his Corsi being the highest of his career at 55.5 percent. He was at least having quality shifts and making his linemates better around him.
However, we obviously need more from a player of his magnitude, and I believe it’s conceivable to think he’ll have a much bigger spike in production going into his second season in Nashville.
Just not good enough
As for going off his first season in Nashville, it leaves a lot to be desired just due to the season he was coming off of in 2018-19, the big contract and the raw talent level.
It’s very fair to expect more from Duchene next season, and feel like he was a bit of a letdown. I wouldn’t go as far as to say he was a total failure, though.
I’m giving Duchene a slightly above average grade due to my expectations being much higher than what he produced, and that he’s certainly not an average talent level.
Considering Duchene’s hefty contract that brings an $8 million cap hit, he’s going to continue to be under a spotlight to produce at a much higher level than a 50-point scorer.
I have a lot of optimism that he has a much better season in his second year with the team. There was so much turbulence thanks to the coaching change, some key injuries, no consistent lineups and him having to get accustomed to two new systems in one season.
But when you’re on the talent level that Duchene is on, you rightfully have to expect more efficiency and more of an impact to overcome season obstacles.
A slightly above average grade isn’t what you want or expect from a top-level talent like Duchene who was brought in to fill a major gap on the Predators roster, and make a much bigger impact.
When you see the contract he’s currently got, it makes you worry some. But, with that said, he did do other things well outside of just scoring.
Now we need more chemistry and stability to be built within the roster under Head Coach John Hynes next season.