Everyone knows that Barry Trotz is one of the most well respected and accomplished figures throughout the history of the NHL. The man coached from 1998-2022 and won a Stanley Cup, and one of the biggest reasons he was able to keep jobs for so long was he always got more out of less talent on the ice, especially in the playoffs.
He managed to get the best out of Nashville Predators teams that did not have much talent, and with such rosters, helped them snap their long streak of never winning a playoff series. He won a Cup with a Washington Capitals team that lost talent from the prior seasons, and with the New York Islanders, went deep in the playoffs with rosters nobody would have ever expected him to.
Trotz was a great head coach, and with his experience as a winner, reputation in the city of Nashville, and time to prepare for life as an executive, many were excited about him succeeding David Poile.
Now, it is still early in his tenure as a GM, as he is in year two, but being a great head coach does not directly translate to being a great GM, and results suggest that his aforementioned strength as a coach is negatively impacting his work today.
The "get more out of less" concept does not work as well as a GM
To state the obvious, being a head coach and being a GM are two different jobs that require two different skillsets. As a head coach, everything you do essentially boils down to one objective: making decisions and necessary adjustments to win individual games.
You as a coach are not coming into work thinking about what your roster is going to look like next year, five years from now, or really even the next day. It is all about taking what is in front of you, devising tactics with your personnel, and leading your guys so that every one game, you get two points in the standings.
As a GM, the big picture task is to evaluate talent and make moves that give your team the best talent, and talent that fits together. And unlike a head coach, you have to think about not just the present day, but the next year and years from now and how your team will evolve, and devise a grand plan based on that.
Now, sometimes the best thing for a GM to do is to make moves that prioritize the present day over future years, as you oftentimes see guys take big swings when they have a shot at a Cup. But still, you as a GM have to think much more about the long term pros and cons of each move, rather than just preparing for a particular game or two coming up.
And of course, the objectives for head coaches and GM's are not totally black and white, there are times in which it makes sense for each to think a little more through the lens of the other and make decisions accordingly.
As a head coach, sometimes it is good to be realistic about where your team is at and make lineup decisions that mainly prioritize player development. Take the Predators of this year, for example, the playoffs are so far out of the picture that no one win is going to help, so it makes sense to give big minutes to guys like Fedor Svechkov and Luke Evangelista, even if it will not help the best with winning right now.
And as a GM, you have to consider what helps your coach talent wise, and also from a mental standpoint, so that everyone in the locker room meshes together. No roster will be perfect for every coach, and coaches may need to make adjustments too, but you still have to make sure that they have a roster they can work and improve with over time.
Even for the gray areas, the overall job descriptions remain the same, the coach is allowed and encouraged to make decisions around what can be accomplished in one immediate game, while the GM has to be more pragmatic and make sure the short term and long term plans make sense.
And for Trotz himself, obviously nobody knows what is truly going on in his mind and every motivation behind every move he makes for the Predators. But based on what worked for him as a head coach, and how he is operating as an executive, it is reasonable to think that his judgement is being clouded by the old coach that still exists in him.
Barry Trotz's moves have not shown enough emphasis on the broader plan for the Nashville Predators
Going back to last season, the Predators finished with a first round loss to the Vancouver Canucks in six games, a series that honestly, could have gone either way. There was a lot to be encouraged by especially after a tremendous second half of the year, but there was some realism that needed to considered.
The success was due in large part to career years unlikely to be repeated by guys like Gustav Nyquist and Colton Sissons, and even Ryan O'Reilly's campaign was unlikely to repeat considering his age. They also had a 16-0-2 streak, something that almost never happens, and with that, they were only good enough for a wildcard berth and first round exit.
The Predators had a ton of cap space last offseason, so if Trotz were to have sat and done absolutely nothing, it would have been GM malpractice. But it would have been good to make moves for younger players who had long futures ahead of them, especially for a team that did not end 2023-24 as young as they would have hoped.
As we know, that is not what Trotz did, he saw what happened last year and got aggressive thinking the team could win now. He went out and signed three experienced veterans over the age of 30, and even though it would make the Predators' contending window short, it would give them the best chance of success within that time frame.
In Trotz's mind, he saw what Andrew Brunette did getting more out of less in 2023-24, and knew he had done the same in his coaching career. It is likely that that concept, as well as the one of preparing to win individual games, carried over and made him think that the free agency acquisitions could be quick fixes and get the Predators to the promised land.
Additionally, we have seen that Trotz has prioritized acquiring players with pedigree and intangibles rather than pure talent. That is likely due in part to thinking about how he has related to players in the past as a coach, more how his team stacks up against others in terms of talent and true cohesion.
What the Predators have ended up with is a slow team whose stars are all over the age of 30, they have failed to balance skill and intangibles, and they just do not mesh together. It is also worth noting that Trotz left the center position in terrible shape for a team that wanted to go deep in the playoffs, and that is probably where the "do more with less" concept played a role.
What is also funny is when you get back into the gray areas of being GM, what Trotz did not address was the fit between personnel and head coach. He knew Andrew Brunette's system was predicated on speed and the 200 foot game, and he went out and signed three players over the age of 30.
The Predators are a team with the wrong players with the wrong head coach with the wrong system and everything, and you can see how a group with such high expectations can fall apart so badly. Ultimately, all of it stems back to how Trotz assembled the team, and you can easily point to how his tendencies as a head coach have dictated his tendencies as a GM.
Another thing that is important to mention is the frequency of the moves Trotz has made, which can be traced back to the idea of making constant adjustments to win games each night. Before the recent Gustav Nyquist trade, since the beginning of August, Trotz had made six notable trades and one notable waiving, which is insane.
He traded Yaroslav Askarov, Cody Glass, Philip Tomasino, Juuso Parssinen, and waived Dante Fabbro, all guys who, at one point or another, were supposed to be key for the future for the Predators. Each individual move was not the same, but it is reasonable to assume that they did not relate so well to Trotz as gritty veterans who were going to be playoff warriors, and he should have been more patient to work with and develop them.
He also traded Scott Wedgewood and Alexandre Carrier right after they signed contracts in the most recent offseason. The Carrier trade was especially crazy, as he was a potential trade piece at the 2024 Trade Deadline, stuck around, looked like he was going to walk in free agency, signed an actually team friendly contract on June 30, then ultimately got dealt.
As is with any job, there is a certain element of observing and thinking on your feet and adjusting accordingly, but that level of turnover is almost never seen within well run organizations. And even at last year's Trade Deadline, Trotz traded for Jason Zucker and Anthony Beauvillier while trading Yakov Trenin.
After seeing how he has continued to operate, that can be pointed to making one certain adjustment instead of making decisions as part of a true overarching plan, which is not so encouraging.
Barry Trotz can right his wrongs from this Trade Deadline
There are some positives from Trotz's tenure as a GM so far, but when you consider it from an overall standpoint, he is not off to a good start so far. If you just do not have hope for him given the results and history of head coaches becoming executives, I do not blame you, but now is a perfect opportunity for him to change his ways for the better.
As mentioned, he is in year two as a GM, which generally, is not enough to make your mark and prove yourself. It is also fair to say that even at the end of last year, Trotz did not truly know what he had in his team due to the middling finish, and he chose to go the route of success in the short term instead of truly building for the future.
But now, he should know exactly what he has in this team, the Predators are near the bottom of the NHL standings, and the personnel issues on this team are not getting fixed. He should have enough conviction to do what he should have done last offseason and from this point on, make the team younger and faster and build for the future.
The Nyquist trade shows he is clearly and rightfully out on the team this year, and we can expect to see more trades in the next few days. It looks like at this Trade Deadline, he is doing what he needs to do, and if he can actually stick to rebuilding, it will more than likely benefit everyone.
The Predators as a team will go into next year with a clean slate of expectations and have a team with much more room to improve, versus one whose ceiling is mostly capped. Getting younger and faster could only help Brunette from a systematic perspective, as it obviously is not working with a core of players whose average age is over 33.
Is it possible that Trotz just is what he is as a GM and will run this team into the ground with his tendencies and core values as a coach? Yes, but there is plenty to suggest that he is still learning and can do better once he actually knows what he has in his team, and all we can do is hope that that is indeed the case.