Predators Flip the Switch vs. Stars: 3 Reasons they Got Revenge in Dallas
After the meltdown at home vs. Dallas in December, the Predators put forth one of their best games of 2023-24 in a 4-2 win on Saturday.
Chalk this up as one of the best wins of the Andrew Brunette era after the Nashville Predators went into Dallas on Saturday with a 4-3 victory.
This game went back and forth and displayed two evenly-matched division rivals. It felt like a playoff atmosphere, and the Predators came in on a mission to rectify Thursday's very dissappointing effort against the Calgary Flames.
It's been a theme all season that the Predators can't hold leads and tend to take periods off to allow momentum to swing back to the opponent, and it looked like they were in danger of letting that happen again when the Stars tied it late in the 2nd period.
Going into the 3rd period, the Stars had a 55% chance of winning according to MoneyPuck. The momentum was on the side of the Stars at home and the Predators had to bring a massive response in the final frame.
Let's get to my three reasons why the Predators were able to secure this victory to move their season record to 22-16-1 and only four points behind Dallas for third place in the Central Division.
Organized Defensive Pressure from Predators
We have to start with the complete 180 shift in defensive structure by the Predators from Thursday to Saturday. Against Calgary in the 6-3 loss the Predators surrendered 22 High Danger chances, and in this one they slightly improved by only giving up 18. Still not great, but improvement at least.
One of the most noticeable stats that sticks out from this game is blocked shots. Both teams did a superb job affecting shooting lanes and protecting their goaltenders. One goaltender faired better than the other, but we'll get to that later.
Dante Fabbro and Ryan McDonagh led the way in blocked shots with four each. McDonagh in particular really showed off his timeliness and willingness to put himself in harm's way to block Dallas' shots.
When the Stars emptied their net with around two minutes remaining, nightmares of the December 23rd loss came back. The Predators as a team had to stay organized in their defensive zone to get this one over the finish line.
Even with better defensive structure, the Stars still managed to finish with 3.8 Expected Goals, while the Predators finished with just 2 Expected Goals. Which brings us to the next reason for the win.
Bad Goaltending for Dallas, Clutch Goaltending for Predators
A tale of two very different goalie performances with both teams going with their backups. Scott Wedgewood for Dallas never looked comfortable right from the opening faceoff and his first shot faced, while Kevin Lankinen had to come up with some difficult saves mostly in the 2nd period.
Lankinen also had to deny a penalty shot early in the 2nd period to keep the Stars off the board. He would finish with a positive Goals Saved Above Expected at 0.8.
The save percentage Lankinen finishes with doesn't really do him justice for how great he was in clutch moments. Stopping the penalty shot was huge and the ultimate x-factor in the final score, but there were other moments when he had to scramble all over the crease to keep the puck out.
The Stars didn't stop coming at the Predators. They're one of the best, if not the best, teams in the NHL at making comebacks and winning one-goal games. You can never count the Stars out.
Wedgewood only faced 22 shots but surrendered four goals. He only faced one High Danger shot attempt from Nashville while Lankinen faced six High Danger shot attempts from Dallas.
Lankinen moves his season record to 5-3-0 while also appearing in four other games in relief duty for Juuse Saros. The questions keep swirling on if Brunette should even out the starts more between Lankinen and a streaky Saros.
Forsberg Makes Sure Predators Don't Collapse Again vs. Stars
Filip Forsberg became the third period hero the Predators needed to get this one into the win column. You can't get much more clutch than what he did in the final frame to push the Predators to the 4-3 win.
Forsberg's first goal which broke the 2-2 tied was due to forechecking pressure while Dallas was trying to escape the zone into transition. Alexandre Carrier forces the giveaway, Ryan O'Reilly gets it to Gus Nyquist, and Nyquist finds the open Forsberg.
Best part about this play is Forsberg's skating without the puck, finding a soft spot in the zone and then showing his patience and puck handling to beat Wedgewood with the crafty backhand.
Nobody tell Filip Forsberg that he's already an All-Star I want to see him keep doing this pic.twitter.com/XxBu43qPH1
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 7, 2024
With the game still in doubt, Forsberg restored the two-goal lead for the Predators with just a beautiful wraparound goal that completely fools Wedgewood. Worthy of a video game, Forsberg pulls off the aggressive move behind the net and stuns the Dallas defense.
Forsberg now has 21 goals on the season and six mult-goal games. He's also reached the 20-goal mark for the 8th time of his NHL career, which puts him in elite company among Swedish born players in NHL history.
Filip Forsberg helped the @PredsNHL stave off a Dallas comeback and did so thanks to his 20th and 21st goals of the season.
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) January 7, 2024
Read more #NHLStats about the first 32 players named to the 2024 NHL All-Star Weekend: https://t.co/rbZZjjn5TK pic.twitter.com/WzjmqwE5c3
Forsberg was just named to his 2nd All-Star game this past week. He's very close to cracking the top-10 in the NHL in goals for the season and is tied with William Nylander and Travis Konecny.
After only playing in 50 games last season due to a concussion in February, Forsberg has already surpassed his point total from 2022-23 and is on pace to break his career high of 84 points set in 2021-22.
Other notes from Preds vs. Stars
Nyquist had a goal and an assist to extend his point streak to eight games. He's up to 10 goals and 32 points on the season.
Luke Evangelista scored his 7th goal of the season and now has goals in three of his last four games. He has matched his goal total from 2022-23 and is tied for 6th among rookies in points with 19.
Up next during this difficult stretch in January the Predators will take on the Anaheim Ducks at home on Tuesday.