I can already see it now with Nashville Predators fans freaking out and paranoid that the front office is about to lose another one of their young up-and-comers in Luke Evangelista.
Calm down for those of you losing sleep over it. I think it's going to be okay and it's just the formalities of hammering down the details with Evangelista in line to get his first contract after his ELC.
Fans have already had to stomach losing Yaroslav Askarov, Philip Tomasino, Tommy Novak and Cody Glass over the past year. The segment of the fanbase that was hoping for a youth rebuild got supplied a hard dose of reality that Barry Trotz didn't like his current core of young talent.
The Predators aren't in a lot of offseason headlines right now because they simply don't have a lot of free agents to worry about, and also many think that Trotz is just going to simply run it back with largely the same core veterans and pray for better results. That is unless Jonathan Marchessault is traded, then everything gets a shakeup, including Evangelista's role in 2025-26 which grows exponentially if Marchessault is gone.
Clock is ticking on the Predators' one big free agent this summer, Luke Evangelista
Evangelista is going to hit restricted free agency if a deal isn't signed soon. His entrly level deal is expiring after putting in 172 games for the Predators since his drafting in the second round of the 2020 NHL Draft. Dang, time really does fly by.
Let's first make it clear that being a restricted free agent makes it much more complicated to just sign with another team. There are offer sheets for restricted free agents, but it doesn't happen regularly. For a team to offer sheet Evangelista, it would be shocking to say the least. The Predators hold the cards to figure out a fair deal for both sides and get it done before July 1.
There's still some time left to get this deal done, but what is holding it up? It sould be a fairly straightforward new contract for Evangelista, assuming the organization has full faith in him, correct?
This is where I'm a little perplexed. I figured the deal would be signed by now. Something is holding it up from getting this out of the way. A couple years for around three million per year. Basically a "prove it" contract that is pretty normal for front offices to do with a player exiting their entry level deal. Prove to us that you're about to really take off and hit your ceiling.
Evangelista has untapped potential that might break out next year, and the Predators can't repeat the mistakes of losing another young talent
In the case of Evangelista, he has been good, but not great. There is untapped potential there and I certainly don't want to see the Predators lose him. I suspect that the hold up is based on the details of how long are we giving him? Again, you don't have to rush into a signed deal in the second week of June, but at the same time we are getting closer to crunch time.
Even in an awful situation to be a young offensive player, Evangelista maintained his point per 60 minutes efficiency from his first two seasons. Sure, you'd like to see him increasing that output, but it was such a bad situation for everyone involved last season that you can't really hold that against him.
The key to unlocking Evangelista's breakout potential in 2025-26 is to take the training wheels off and let him sink or swim. He should be in the top-six playing with Steven Stamkos on the other wing and Fedor Svechkov getting his chance at the 2C role.
Ultimately, Evangelista should get a two-year deal at minimum worth around three million per year. Novak got three years at $3.5 million before they traded him to the Penguins this past year.
In the right situation, Evangelista can turn out to be a 20 to 30 goal scorer in this league and be that winger the Predators need as they enter their retool phase, Giving Evangelista at least two years, but even three years, to prove to you that he's part of the long-term solution isn't asking too much.
As far as the per year value, it's probably got to be between three and four million at the most. Even with a rising salary cap, Evangelista still has more to prove. He's got two full NHL season under his belt now, and one brief year when he began with 24 games played in the 2022-23 season.
There's probably just some finer details that need to be worked out, which is normal. In the end the Predators should sign Evangelista for I'll project as three years at $3.5 million per year. Same as what Novak got.
I really liked what I saw from Evangelista down the stretch of what was a brutal season for the Predators. He didn't quit, he stayed hungry and capped off a 32-point season on a team where everyone struggled offensively.
The Predators have approximately $17 million and some change in cap space this offseason. If Evangelista gets around my projection of three to four million, there's still plenty of money to go shopping for another player in free agency. Just have to be wise about it and not fall into the trap of being the retirement home of aging NHL veterans.