Steven Stamkos was supposed to be one of the top prizes of 2024 offseason free agency, but the future lock Hall of Famer has been virtually invisible for the Nashville Predators as of late.
It truly is remarkable and literally leaves me speechless on the downfall of Stamkos in a Predators sweater. Wise Tampa Bay Lightning fans will tell you that they saw this coming, and some of them aren't lying because I remember talking to some when the signing happened in July of 2024.
The running joke, and nightmare for Predators fans, is that Nashville is where all former superstars come to retire well past their primes. But the thing about Stamkos is it's not like he was on the steep decline before Nashville landed him. He was still a "superstar" when Nashville signed him last July. He wasn't a "has been" yet.
Stamkos surged for 81 points, 40 goals and 41 assists, in his last season with Tampa Bay. That is just a three-point decline from the season before and was right in line with his point efficiency per 60 minutes going back to his prime years of 2017 to 2020.
Stamkos' offense has sunk to depths we couldn't have imagined
Like dropping a boulder off the side of a cliff, Stamkos' points per 60 has plummeted to 1.8 in his first season with Nashville. I would call out Stamkos more harshly if it was an isolated issue, but it isn't. The whole team is experiencing individual offense declines.
Filip Forsberg has dropped in points per 60 from 3.6 to 2.9, Jonathan Marchessault from 2.8 to 2.5, Ryan O'Reilly from 2.6 to 2.0, and Gustav Nyquist (now traded) from 3.1 to 1.3.
So while Stamkos is without question been incredibly disappointing and invisible on the ice, you're seeing several other guys go through similar issues to different degrees. Some worse than others, but all are experience dips.
What does this tell me? It screams to me that it's a systematic issue. That's not to say that the players deserve a free pass, because they don't. Ultimately they have to perform, not the head coach wearing the flashy suit.
What part of the blame does Stamkos, Brunette and Trotz share?
When it comes to Head Coach Andrew Brunette I just can't make anymore excuses for him. There are too many examples of players underperforming based on their career track records and their trajectories. And for the purpose of Stamkos, an undeniable future Hall of Famer, it's just baffling how non-existent he is.
The early line shuffling, which I called out right from the infancy of the 2024-25 season, damaged the chemistry building. Brunette could never settle on a top line or a second line center. He constantly changed things up and that hurt the newcomers from getting acclimated to their new team.
Now it's obviously not all on Brunette. This is where Barry Trotz comes in as general manager. He went swinging for the fences and was looking for a quick path to being a Stanley Cup contender. He tried and he clearly struck out. Now Trotz is trapped with very little leverage as a seller at the trade deadline with these no trade clauses, although I will give him credit that getting a second round pick for Nyquist was best case scenario.
Stamkos clearly has been a letdown, and sure, he hasn't played well and would probably admit he hasn't played up to his personal standards. Future Hall of Famers shouldn't ever be in the business of making excuses or blaming others for their underperformance.
Stamkos shouldn't do it, but I can from the outside looking in. This roster doesn't match with each other. I put the blame primarily on Trotz for not identifying this in his free agency selections, and I would bet that Stamkos is wishing he remained with Tampa Bay for a cheaper price.
Think about this insanity of this; Stamkos is on a 13-game point drought. longest of his storied career, and still fifth on the Predators in points. This is a deeply rooted systematic issue.
I defended Brunette as long as I could, but you have to cut ties with him in the offseason. No reason to do it now with so few games left. Start fresh in the offseason with your coaching search.
Trotz isn't going anywhere even though he shares some blame as well, and Stamkos is probably sticking around unless he waives his trade protection and some team is crazy enough to sign his contract of three more years at $8 million per.
Everyone shares some blame in this, including Stamkos, but the fall guy should be Brunette. Bring in a new head coach and a new vision and keep your fingers crossed that Stamkos and others can respond with a better system around them in 2025-26.