Nashville Predators: Will Impact Players Drive Predators to Success?
Last season, a certain group of impact players led the Nashville Predators to new heights. This year, each is back and edging the team to its first Cup.
It’s no secret that the Nashville Predators have a star-studded lineup. For the first time in their 20-year history, nearly every other NHL team should look enviously at their roster. The importance of personnel depth is exhausted in every analysis, but there’s another cliché worth discussing: your best players have to be, well, your best players.
For the Nashville Predators: that comes down to a small handful of extremely talented players. There is obviously room for discussion here, but there are six players – four forwards and two defensemen – included in this analysis. It’s valuable to compare this season to last, in order to understand the true impact of the team’s stars.
The sample size here is much larger than just a single game. As such, we can use metrics that are more descriptive than simple shot attempts. Primarily, that includes expected goal percentages.
Much like Corsi or Fenwick, calculating “expected goals” involves the performance of all players on the ice. Unlike other metrics, however, it accounts for shot quality. Emmanuel Perry, the mastermind behind Corsica, explains his calculation process here.
Before we break it down for each individual, let’s see how the Nashville Predators as a whole compare to last season.
Team statistics
The Nashville Predators are coming off the most successful season in franchise history. In these situations, “hangovers” are not uncommon. Take a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins, for example. After their second consecutive Cup, Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz gives them just a 67% chance of making this year’s playoffs. For curiosity’s sake, the same model gives Nashville a 94% chance of making the playoffs.
In the following graph, you’ll see two lines. The dark blue line represents Nashville’s expected goals for percentage (xGF%). In other words, these values represent the expected ratio of Nashville goals scored to goals allowed by Nashville. If this value is 50%, Nashville is expected to score exactly as many goals as they concede over a given time.
The gold line represents their actual goals for percentage (GF%) during the regular season of each indicated year. Keep in mind that all of the values in this article come from five-on-five; there are no special teams included.
Compared to last season, the Nashville Predators expected goal percentage has decreased by almost 4%. Their actual goals for percentage is actually a bit higher, however. This can be attributed to a number of factors, but primarily goaltending. Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros have both been overperforming, statistically speaking, which can create some variance in the expected goals model.
Now we’ll look at some individual players.
Ryan Johansen
It’s well documented that I am a huge supporter of Nashville’s number one center. Admittedly, Ryan Johansen is having a down year on the score sheet. On average, he puts up between 60 and 70 points throughout a full season. This year, he’s on pace for just 52.
That said, he is putting up above-average possession numbers. His average Fenwick percentage over this season, for example, is higher than in his previous six seasons. That could mean a number of things but likely indicates that he is contributing more defensively this year than in past years.
In this graph, note that the gold line represents a different statistic than on the previous slide. From now on, it represents the selected player’s offensive zone start percentage (oZS%), or the frequency at which the player is taking a faceoff in the offensive zone. If this value is substantially higher than 50%, a player is considered “sheltered,” or having little defensive responsibility.
The blue line, as before, represents the expected goals for percentage (xGF%).
Surprisingly, Ryan Johansen’s zone starts are more offensively weighted than last year, though not by much. However, his expected goals for percentage has decreased by about 2%. It’s hard to be too critical of Johansen, however, because the value is still nicely above 50%. Even in a down year, Ryan Johansen has been a reliable forward regarding goals for the good guys.
Mattias Ekholm
Mattias Ekholm may not be a name that springs to mind in this category. However, I’d argue that he is Nashville’s most valuable defensive asset on any given night. He doesn’t have P.K. Subban‘s slapshot or Roman Josi‘s puck control. That said, as a stay-at-home NHL defenseman, he is nearly infallible.
Unlike many players in this list, he is having a relatively good scoring year. After 46 games, he has already surpassed his point total from last season.
Unfortunately for Ekholm, his expected goals for percentage has decreased pretty dramatically from last season. More worryingly, the value has dropped below the 50% mark. This indicates that, with Mattias Ekholm on the ice, the Nashville Predators are expected to concede more even-strength goals than they produce.
This downward trend exists in spite of a more favorable zone start ratio for Ekholm. He’s taking nearly 1% more of his faceoffs in the offensive zone compared to last season. It’s not a big difference, but it’s usually not good for those lines to show opposite trends.
A potential contributor to the poor numbers is simply time on ice. He currently has the team’s second-highest average time on ice at 24:23 each night. It’s certainly not uncommon to see top defensemen play 23 or 24 minutes a night, but with Nashville’s blue line depth, it will only benefit the team to decrease Ekholm’s minutes slightly. His health and performance down the road will certainly benefit.
Filip Forsberg
You can’t discuss impact players from the Nashville Predators without mentioning Filip Forsberg. He has led the Predators in goals through each of his three full seasons with the team, though last year he shared the prize with Viktor Arvidsson.
If there’s a phrase that describes Fosberg’s impact to a team, I’d offer “timely goals.” More than any other player on the bench, Forsberg has a knack for finding the net when the team needs it most. As an example, look to the first round of last year’s playoffs. In the third period of game three, Chicago led Nashville 2-0. Forsberg scored two goals in ten minutes to bring the game to overtime, where Kevin Fiala sealed the deal.
It’s obviously worth mentioning that Forsberg has been absent for several weeks after sustaining an upper-body injury. That said, here’s a look at his comparison to last season.
Like the majority of the team, his expected goals for percentage has taken a hit this season. However, on a positive note, his zone starts indicate that he is being given more defensive responsibility. With that in mind, the decrease in expected goals is, well, expected.
Filip Forsberg is still getting it done on the score sheet, make no mistake. In 37 games, he’s put up 15 goals and 19 assists. It is slightly concerning that just 17 of his 34 points have come at five-on-five. However, with the team as a whole performing well, the issue is not overly worrying.
P.K. Subban
Like many in the Nashville community, I believe P.K. Subban has earned consideration for this year’s Norris Trophy. The award is often given to the league’s highest-scoring defenseman, although it is supposedly given to best overall defenseman. This year, it is shaping out to be Dallas defenseman John Klingberg.
Subban’s contribution to a team goes well beyond his offensive capabilities, though they are considerable. In my opinion, Subban’s irreplaceability comes from his transition play. As soon as the puck gets to his stick, Nashville is attacking. Of course, this can make for some pretty high-profile turnovers by Subban, but the good heavily outweighs the bad.
His deployment is well illustrated by his zone start ratio. Unsurprisingly, his expected goals for percentage has taken a hit compared to last season:
His offensive zone start percentage of 41.52% is the lowest of any defenseman on the Nashville Predators’ roster. On top of that, when you look at his specific opposition, you’ll see a lot of familiar names. Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos – each of these players has faced P.K.’s shutdown ability.
P.K. Subban is as valuable an asset to this team as any player could be. Night after night, he’s matched against the most lethal forwards an opponent can offer. In spite of that, he leads his team in overall points this season. Once again, I’ll mention “Norris Trophy.”
Kevin Fiala
This, I admit, could be a contentious choice. Nobody can deny Kevin Fiala‘s abilities, but it is bold to classify him as one of Nashville’s top six impact players. However, I completely stand by it.
The reason is simple. Throughout last season and so far during this season, Kevin Fiala has led the team in expected goals for percentage. What does that mean? With Kevin Fiala on the ice, the Nashville Predators are statistically expected to score more goals than they concede. Furthermore, his impact in this category is greater than any other player on the team.
He is heavily sheltered, I will admit. However, that is to be expected for a 21-year-old winger in the NHL. There’s no benefit to Fiala or the team to force him into a defensive role. To his credit, he is taking full advantage of the favorable zone deployment.
You should immediately notice that both Kevin Fiala’s oZS% and xGF% values are considerably higher than the other players in this list. Unfortunately, there is a pretty serious decline in his expected goals percentage from last season to this season.
Still, his value of 54.45% is the best on the team, and well above the desired 50% mark. As the season continues, expect even more production from the young forward. His development will continue to improve for the next few years, and his production will follow.
It’s unquestionable: the Nashville Predators are a much better team with Kevin Fiala on the ice.
Projected performance
Compared to last season, the Nashville Predators roster is definitely improved. The team has more depth at every position and can cause damage from any line at any moment. In the postseason, scoring depth and the ability to sufficiently replace injured players is paramount.
Using the expected goals model, the team is declining from their performance last regular season. In fact, there are only two players on the team who have improved their expected goals percentage from last year: Craig Smith and Colton Sissons.
The Nashville Predators have not played consistently good hockey this season. Frequently, they rely on power play situations and outstanding goaltending to get points each night. Neither of those areas can be relied upon in a playoff run, so it’s cause for concern.
The good news is that there are still 35 more games before the postseason. If a few areas can be touched up during the next couple months, this team will gain a new level of consistent performance from all individuals.
Until then, the burden remains on the shoulders of these six impact players. They, more than any others, define the identity of the Nashville Predators.
All data presented in this article is from www.corsica.hockey, www.naturalstattrick.com, or www.hockey-reference.com.